30 Oct 2024
Exploring climate stabilisation at different global warming levels in ACCESS-ESM-1.5
Andrew D. King, Tilo Ziehn, Matthew Chamberlain, Alexander R. Borowiak, Josephine R. Brown, Liam Cassidy, Andrea J. Dittus, Michael Grose, Nicola Maher, Seungmok Paik, Sarah E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, and Aditya Sengupta
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1353–1383, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1353-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1353-2024, 2024
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18 Oct 2024
Bringing it all together: science priorities for improved understanding of Earth system change and to support international climate policy
Colin G. Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben B. B. Booth, Peter M. Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene T. Hewitt, Hazel A. Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm J. Roberts, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Frölicher, Neven S. Fučkar, Matthew J. Gidden, Helge F. Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, José M. Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris D. Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Mélia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard A. Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1319–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, 2024
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15 Oct 2024
Uncertainty-informed selection of CMIP6 Earth system model subsets for use in multisectoral and impact models
Abigail Snyder, Noah Prime, Claudia Tebaldi, and Kalyn Dorheim
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1301–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1301-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1301-2024, 2024
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26 Aug 2024
Cautionary remarks on the planetary boundary visualisation
Miguel D. Mahecha, Guido Kraemer, and Fabio Crameri
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1153–1159, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1153-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1153-2024, 2024
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19 Aug 2024
Tipping point detection and early warnings in climate, ecological, and human systems
Vasilis Dakos, Chris A. Boulton, Joshua E. Buxton, Jesse F. Abrams, Beatriz Arellano-Nava, David I. Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Lana Blaschke, Niklas Boers, Daniel Dylewsky, Carlos López-Martínez, Isobel Parry, Paul Ritchie, Bregje van der Bolt, Larissa van der Laan, Els Weinans, and Sonia Kéfi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1117–1135, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1117-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1117-2024, 2024
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25 Jul 2024
ESD Ideas: Exoplanet, origins of life and biosphere researchers offer a perspective fundamental to ensuring humanity's future
Daniel Duzdevich, Arwen E. Nicholson, and Raphaëlle D. Haywood
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 929–932, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-929-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-929-2024, 2024
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24 Jul 2024
Observation-inferred resilience loss of the Amazon rainforest possibly due to internal climate variability
Raphael Grodofzig, Martin Renoult, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 913–927, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-913-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-913-2024, 2024
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13 Jun 2024
The impacts of elevated CO2 on forest growth, mortality, and recovery in the Amazon rainforest
Yitong Yao, Philippe Ciais, Emilie Joetzjer, Wei Li, Lei Zhu, Yujie Wang, Christian Frankenberg, and Nicolas Viovy
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 763–778, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-763-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-763-2024, 2024
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03 May 2024
Applying global warming levels of emergence to highlight the increasing population exposure to temperature and precipitation extremes
David Gampe, Clemens Schwingshackl, Andrea Böhnisch, Magdalena Mittermeier, Marit Sandstad, and Raul R. Wood
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 589–605, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-589-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-589-2024, 2024
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24 Apr 2024
The perfect storm? Co-occurring climate extremes in East Africa
Derrick Muheki, Axel A. J. Deijns, Emanuele Bevacqua, Gabriele Messori, Jakob Zscheischler, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 429–466, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-429-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-429-2024, 2024
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24 Apr 2024
Dependency of the impacts of geoengineering on the stratospheric sulfur injection strategy – Part 2: How changes in the hydrological cycle depend on the injection rate and model used
Anton Laakso, Daniele Visioni, Ulrike Niemeier, Simone Tilmes, and Harri Kokkola
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 405–427, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-405-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-405-2024, 2024
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18 Apr 2024
Carbon budget concept and its deviation through the pulse response lens
Vito Avakumović
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 387–404, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-387-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-387-2024, 2024
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27 Mar 2024
Solar radiation modification challenges decarbonization with renewable solar energy
Susanne Baur, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, and Laurent Terray
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 307–322, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-307-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-307-2024, 2024
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18 Mar 2024
Possible role of anthropogenic climate change in the record-breaking 2020 Lake Victoria levels and floods
Rosa Pietroiusti, Inne Vanderkelen, Friederike E. L. Otto, Clair Barnes, Lucy Temple, Mary Akurut, Philippe Bally, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 225–264, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-225-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-225-2024, 2024
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13 Mar 2024
Hemispherically symmetric strategies for stratospheric aerosol injection
Yan Zhang, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, Ewa M. Bednarz, and Ben Kravitz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 191–213, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-191-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-191-2024, 2024
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16 Feb 2024
Detecting the human fingerprint in the summer 2022 western–central European soil drought
Dominik L. Schumacher, Mariam Zachariah, Friederike Otto, Clair Barnes, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Maja Vahlberg, Roop Singh, Dorothy Heinrich, Julie Arrighi, Maarten van Aalst, Mathias Hauser, Martin Hirschi, Verena Bessenbacher, Lukas Gudmundsson, Hiroko K. Beaudoing, Matthew Rodell, Sihan Li, Wenchang Yang, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Luke J. Harrington, Flavio Lehner, Gianpaolo Balsamo, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 131–154, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-131-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-131-2024, 2024
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29 Jan 2024
Future water storage changes over the Mediterranean, Middle East, and North Africa in response to global warming and stratospheric aerosol intervention
Abolfazl Rezaei, Khalil Karami, Simone Tilmes, and John C. Moore
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 91–108, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-91-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-91-2024, 2024
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20 Dec 2023
The Indonesian Throughflow circulation under solar geoengineering
Chencheng Shen, John C. Moore, Heri Kuswanto, and Liyun Zhao
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1317–1332, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1317-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1317-2023, 2023
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27 Nov 2023
Land cover and management effects on ecosystem resistance to drought stress
Chenwei Xiao, Sönke Zaehle, Hui Yang, Jean-Pierre Wigneron, Christiane Schmullius, and Ana Bastos
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1211–1237, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1211-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1211-2023, 2023
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14 Nov 2023
ESD Ideas: Arctic amplification's contribution to breaches of the Paris Agreement
Alistair Duffey, Robbie Mallett, Peter J. Irvine, Michel Tsamados, and Julienne Stroeve
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1165–1169, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1165-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1165-2023, 2023
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18 Oct 2023
ESD Ideas: Translating historical extreme weather events into a warmer world
Ed Hawkins, Gilbert P. Compo, and Prashant D. Sardeshmukh
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1081–1084, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1081-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1081-2023, 2023
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04 Oct 2023
Advancing the estimation of future climate impacts within the United States
Corinne Hartin, Erin E. McDuffie, Karen Noiva, Marcus Sarofim, Bryan Parthum, Jeremy Martinich, Sarah Barr, Jim Neumann, Jacqueline Willwerth, and Allen Fawcett
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1015–1037, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1015-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1015-2023, 2023
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14 Jun 2023
Rate-induced tipping in natural and human systems
Paul D. L. Ritchie, Hassan Alkhayuon, Peter M. Cox, and Sebastian Wieczorek
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 669–683, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-669-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-669-2023, 2023
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22 Feb 2023
Carbon dioxide removal via macroalgae open-ocean mariculture and sinking: an Earth system modeling study
Jiajun Wu, David P. Keller, and Andreas Oschlies
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 185–221, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-185-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-185-2023, 2023
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26 Jan 2023
Robust global detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation despite observational disagreement on the magnitude of change
Iris Elisabeth de Vries, Sebastian Sippel, Angeline Greene Pendergrass, and Reto Knutti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 81–100, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-81-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-81-2023, 2023
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08 Dec 2022
Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heat wave on the Pacific coast of the US and Canada in June 2021
Sjoukje Y. Philip, Sarah F. Kew, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Faron S. Anslow, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Robert Vautard, Dim Coumou, Kristie L. Ebi, Julie Arrighi, Roop Singh, Maarten van Aalst, Carolina Pereira Marghidan, Michael Wehner, Wenchang Yang, Sihan Li, Dominik L. Schumacher, Mathias Hauser, Rémy Bonnet, Linh N. Luu, Flavio Lehner, Nathan Gillett, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Chris Rodell, Roland B. Stull, Rosie Howard, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1689–1713, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022, 2022
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24 Nov 2022
Evidence of localised Amazon rainforest dieback in CMIP6 models
Isobel M. Parry, Paul D. L. Ritchie, and Peter M. Cox
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1667–1675, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1667-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1667-2022, 2022
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01 Jun 2022
Glacial runoff buffers droughts through the 21st century
Lizz Ultee, Sloan Coats, and Jonathan Mackay
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 935–959, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-935-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-935-2022, 2022
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18 May 2022
Downscaling of climate change scenarios for a high-resolution, site-specific assessment of drought stress risk for two viticultural regions with heterogeneous landscapes
Marco Hofmann, Claudia Volosciuk, Martin Dubrovský, Douglas Maraun, and Hans R. Schultz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 911–934, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-911-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-911-2022, 2022
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16 May 2022
Multi-century dynamics of the climate and carbon cycle under both high and net negative emissions scenarios
Charles D. Koven, Vivek K. Arora, Patricia Cadule, Rosie A. Fisher, Chris D. Jones, David M. Lawrence, Jared Lewis, Keith Lindsay, Sabine Mathesius, Malte Meinshausen, Michael Mills, Zebedee Nicholls, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Neil C. Swart, William R. Wieder, and Kirsten Zickfeld
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 885–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-885-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-885-2022, 2022
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13 Apr 2022
Impact of bioenergy crop expansion on climate–carbon cycle feedbacks in overshoot scenarios
Irina Melnikova, Olivier Boucher, Patricia Cadule, Katsumasa Tanaka, Thomas Gasser, Tomohiro Hajima, Yann Quilcaille, Hideo Shiogama, Roland Séférian, Kaoru Tachiiri, Nicolas Vuichard, Tokuta Yokohata, and Philippe Ciais
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 779–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-779-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-779-2022, 2022
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13 Apr 2022
Coupling human and natural systems for sustainability: experience from China's Loess Plateau
Bojie Fu, Xutong Wu, Zhuangzhuang Wang, Xilin Wu, and Shuai Wang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 795–808, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-795-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-795-2022, 2022
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21 Feb 2022
Spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (DOC) leaching into the European river network
Céline Gommet, Ronny Lauerwald, Philippe Ciais, Bertrand Guenet, Haicheng Zhang, and Pierre Regnier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 393–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-393-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-393-2022, 2022
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02 Feb 2022
Natural hazards and extreme events in the Baltic Sea region
Anna Rutgersson, Erik Kjellström, Jari Haapala, Martin Stendel, Irina Danilovich, Martin Drews, Kirsti Jylhä, Pentti Kujala, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Kirsten Halsnæs, Ilari Lehtonen, Anna Luomaranta, Erik Nilsson, Taru Olsson, Jani Särkkä, Laura Tuomi, and Norbert Wasmund
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 251–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-251-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-251-2022, 2022
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22 Dec 2021
Balanced estimate and uncertainty assessment of European climate change using the large EURO-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble
Guillaume Evin, Samuel Somot, and Benoit Hingray
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1543–1569, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1543-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1543-2021, 2021
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09 Dec 2021
Ubiquity of human-induced changes in climate variability
Keith B. Rodgers, Sun-Seon Lee, Nan Rosenbloom, Axel Timmermann, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Clara Deser, Jim Edwards, Ji-Eun Kim, Isla R. Simpson, Karl Stein, Malte F. Stuecker, Ryohei Yamaguchi, Tamás Bódai, Eui-Seok Chung, Lei Huang, Who M. Kim, Jean-François Lamarque, Danica L. Lombardozzi, William R. Wieder, and Stephen G. Yeager
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1393–1411, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1393-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1393-2021, 2021
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06 Dec 2021
Extreme metrics from large ensembles: investigating the effects of ensemble size on their estimates
Claudia Tebaldi, Kalyn Dorheim, Michael Wehner, and Ruby Leung
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1427–1501, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1427-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1427-2021, 2021
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