ESD cover
Chief editors: Somnath Baidya Roy, Ira Didenkulova, Axel Kleidon & Gabriele Messori
eISSN: ESD 2190-4987, ESDD 2190-4995

Earth System Dynamics (ESD) is a not-for-profit international scientific journal dedicated to the publication and public discussion of studies that take an interdisciplinary perspective on the functioning of the Earth system and global change. The overall behaviour of the Earth system is strongly shaped by the interactions among its various component systems, such as the atmosphere, cryosphere, hydrosphere, oceans, pedosphere, and the lithosphere, but also by life and increasingly by human activity. ESD solicits contributions that investigate these various interactions and the underlying mechanisms, ways how these can be conceptualized, modelled, and quantified, predictions of the overall system behaviour to global changes, and the impacts for its habitability, humanity, and the future functioning of the Earth system in the Anthropocene.

Journal metrics

ESD is indexed in the Web of Science, Scopus, Google Scholar, etc. We refrain from displaying the journal metrics prominently on the landing page since citation metrics used in isolation do not describe importance, impact, or quality of a journal. However, these metrics can be found on the journal metrics page.

Highlight articles

23 Apr 2025
High probability of triggering climate tipping points under current policies modestly amplified by Amazon dieback and permafrost thaw
Jakob Deutloff, Hermann Held, and Timothy M. Lenton
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 565–583, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-565-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-565-2025, 2025
Short summary Chief editor
28 Mar 2025
Potential for equation discovery with AI in the climate sciences
Chris Huntingford, Andrew J. Nicoll, Cornelia Klein, and Jawairia A. Ahmad
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 475–495, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-475-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-475-2025, 2025
Short summary Chief editor
28 Nov 2024
Cross-scale causal information flow from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to precipitation in eastern China
Yasir Latif, Kaiyu Fan, Geli Wang, and Milan Paluš
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1509–1526, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1509-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1509-2024, 2024
Short summary Chief editor
30 Oct 2024
Exploring climate stabilisation at different global warming levels in ACCESS-ESM-1.5
Andrew D. King, Tilo Ziehn, Matthew Chamberlain, Alexander R. Borowiak, Josephine R. Brown, Liam Cassidy, Andrea J. Dittus, Michael Grose, Nicola Maher, Seungmok Paik, Sarah E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, and Aditya Sengupta
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1353–1383, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1353-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1353-2024, 2024
Short summary Chief editor
18 Oct 2024
Bringing it all together: science priorities for improved understanding of Earth system change and to support international climate policy
Colin G. Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben B. B. Booth, Peter M. Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene T. Hewitt, Hazel A. Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm J. Roberts, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Frölicher, Neven S. Fučkar, Matthew J. Gidden, Helge F. Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, José M. Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris D. Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Mélia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard A. Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1319–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, 2024
Short summary Chief editor

Recent papers

24 Apr 2025
Constraining uncertainty in projected precipitation over land with causal discovery
Kevin Debeire, Lisa Bock, Peer Nowack, Jakob Runge, and Veronika Eyring
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 607–630, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-607-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-607-2025, 2025
Short summary
24 Apr 2025
Characteristics of Agricultural Droughts in CMIP6 Historical Simulations and Future Projections
Lukas Lindenlaub, Katja Weigel, Birgit Hassler, Colin Jones, and Veronika Eyring
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1517,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1517, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Short summary
24 Apr 2025
Normalizing the permafrost carbon feedback contribution to TCRE and ZEC
Norman J. Steinert and Benjamin M. Sanderson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1714,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1714, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Short summary
23 Apr 2025
| Highlight paper
High probability of triggering climate tipping points under current policies modestly amplified by Amazon dieback and permafrost thaw
Jakob Deutloff, Hermann Held, and Timothy M. Lenton
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 565–583, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-565-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-565-2025, 2025
Short summary Chief editor
23 Apr 2025
Paleogeographic numerical modeling of marginal seas for the Holocene – an exemplary study of the Baltic Sea
Jakub Miluch, Wenyan Zhang, Jan Harff, Andreas Groh, Peter Arlinghaus, and Celine Denker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 585–605, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-585-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-585-2025, 2025
Short summary

News

23 Apr 2025 High probability of triggering climate tipping points under current policies modestly amplified by Amazon dieback and permafrost thaw

The authors investigate the probabilities of triggering climate tipping points under various emission scenarios and how they are altered by additional carbon emissions from the tipping of the Amazon and permafrost. They find that there is a high risk for triggering climate tipping points under a scenario comparable to current policies. Read more.

23 Apr 2025 High probability of triggering climate tipping points under current policies modestly amplified by Amazon dieback and permafrost thaw

The authors investigate the probabilities of triggering climate tipping points under various emission scenarios and how they are altered by additional carbon emissions from the tipping of the Amazon and permafrost. They find that there is a high risk for triggering climate tipping points under a scenario comparable to current policies. Read more.

13 Mar 2025 New agreement between California Digital Library and Copernicus Publications

We are delighted to announce a new agreement between the California Digital Library and Copernicus Publications. The University of California will cover 50% of article processing charges (APCs) for manuscripts affiliated with any of their research units. Read more.

13 Mar 2025 New agreement between California Digital Library and Copernicus Publications

We are delighted to announce a new agreement between the California Digital Library and Copernicus Publications. The University of California will cover 50% of article processing charges (APCs) for manuscripts affiliated with any of their research units. Read more.

12 Mar 2025 Early opportunity signals of a tipping point in the UK's second-hand electric vehicle market

Early warning signals used to detect tipping points are tested on a dataset of daily views of online electric vehicle (EV) adverts. The attention given to EV adverts spikes upwards after specific events before returning to normality more slowly over time. Read more.

12 Mar 2025 Early opportunity signals of a tipping point in the UK's second-hand electric vehicle market

Early warning signals used to detect tipping points are tested on a dataset of daily views of online electric vehicle (EV) adverts. The attention given to EV adverts spikes upwards after specific events before returning to normality more slowly over time. Read more.

Notice on the current situation in Ukraine

To show our support for Ukraine, all fees for papers from authors (first or corresponding authors) affiliated to Ukrainian institutions are automatically waived, regardless if these papers are co-authored by scientists affiliated to Russian and/or Belarusian institutions. The only exception will be if the corresponding author or first contact (contractual partner of Copernicus) are from a Russian and/or Belarusian institution, in that case the APCs are not waived.

In accordance with current European restrictions, Copernicus Publications does not step into business relations with and issue APC-invoices (articles processing charges) to Russian and Belarusian institutions. The peer-review process and scientific exchange of our journals including preprint posting is not affected. However, these restrictions require that the first contact (contractual partner of Copernicus) has an affiliation and invoice address outside Russia or Belarus.