The fractional energy balance equation for climate projections through 2100

19 January 2022

This paper presents a new class of energy balance model that accounts for the long memory within the Earth's energy storage. The model is calibrated on instrumental temperature records and the historical energy budget of the Earth using an error model predicted by the model itself. The authors' equilibrium climate sensitivity and future temperature projection estimates are consistent with those estimated by complex climate models.

The press release by McGill University can be found at: https://www.mcgill.ca/newsroom/channels/news/research-briefs-climate-change-projections-parkinsons-pain-and-mimicking-aorta-333903

Contact: Roman Procyk (roman.procyk@mail.mcgill.ca) and Shaun Lovejoy (lovejoy@physics.mcgill.ca)