New ESD Ideas: Arctic amplification's contribution to breaches of the Paris Agreement

14 November 2023

The Arctic is warming several times faster than the rest of the planet. Here, the authors use climate model projections to quantify for the first time how this faster warming in the Arctic impacts the timing of crossing the 1.5 °C and 2 °C thresholds defined in the Paris Agreement. They show that under plausible emissions scenarios that fail to meet the Paris 1.5 °C target, a hypothetical world without faster warming in the Arctic would breach that 1.5 °C target around 5 years later.

Chief editor's statement: This work links two very actual scientific topics, which are also highly relevant for public understanding of climate change. First, timelines to crossing the Paris Agreement thresholds under future emissions scenarios; second, the rapid warming and profound changes under way in the Arctic region.

The press release by UCL can be found at: https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2023/nov/faster-arctic-warming-hastens-2c-rise-eight-years

The press release by EGU can be found at: https://www.egu.eu/news/986/faster-arctic-warming-hastens-2c-rise-by-eight-years/

Contact: Alistair Duffey (alistair.duffey.21@ucl.ac.uk)