High probability of triggering climate tipping points under current policies modestly amplified by Amazon dieback and permafrost thaw

23 April 2025

The authors investigate the probabilities of triggering climate tipping points under various emission scenarios and how they are altered by additional carbon emissions from the tipping of the Amazon and permafrost. They find that there is a high risk for triggering climate tipping points under a scenario comparable to current policies. However, the additional warming and hence the additional risk of triggering other climate tipping points from the tipping of the Amazon and permafrost remain small.

Please also read the press release by University of Exeter.

Contact: Jakob Deutloff (jakob.deutloff@uni-hamburg.de)